Foresight - exploring the Future
One part of the FAZIT project consists of a multi-stage foresight process in order to identify relevant fields of research and future developments in IT and media technologies that are vital for the region of Baden-Wuerttemberg. As technological, social and economical trends are in close interaction with each other, a combination of foresight methods is applied. Each phase of the foresight process is closely linked with the ongoing ICT monitoring and the results of the research on market issues. Due to selected additional research methods, the inclusion of opinions and expertise of external experts is ensured. The results are documented in the FAZIT series of publications (in German).
Delphi Studies
Within the scope of the FAZIT project, three Delphi studies are carried out. Each Delphi involves a questionnaire survey of about 1,100 regional, national and international experts from economy, science and society (one Delphi study about social developments and two studies about trends in technical development). Possible social and technical trends are examined and experts estimate the probability of their occurrence. Regional stakeholders as well as international experts are involved in the research process to ensure that the most significant developments are covered. In addition, links to other modules, such as monitoring and market issues, are established.
Scenario Process
The overall aim is the generation of a multi-dimensional picture of new markets arising through ICT in Baden-Wuerttemberg. During the time span of the project, the content will be continuously supplemented. It is of vital importance to the scenario process that the following questions are addressed:
- „How will the field of IT and media in Baden-Wuerttemberg appear in the year 2020?"
- "Which issues and areas are of particular significance?"
- "Which industries will be particularly affected by developments in ICT?"
- "How does the situation in Baden-Wuerttemberg differ from those in other regions?"
The last step is to produce alternative models of future developments which are rated through workshops with a probability of occurrence. Successive (partial) scenarios can be generated, which are based upon the findings of the initial round.
Roadmap
Road-mapping is a way of bridging the gap between today and the scenarios of the future. It indicates one or more ways in which the eventual target could be reached. Vitally important to this is the identification of milestones and critical bottle-neck factors which require urgent action and which raise questions for research. The results of the previous foresight processes are summarised and integrated into the roadmap.
The foresight process is conducted by the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Fraunhofer ISI), Karlsruhe as a research partner in the FAZIT project.
